Bad news for Obama in Gallup polls - even before shares fell - Christian Science Monitor


Here is the good news for President Obama: extensive polling by Gallup shows that his work approval rating above 50 percent in 16 States and the District of Columbia.

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The bad news: Mr. Obama is under 50 percent in most of the battleground states, which next year will determine the choice. And this result is aggregated Gallup tracking data that have been taken from January to June of this year, so that it is not in the factor high debt ceiling Act, the uptick in unemployment and the falling markets.

Chances are if each State was asked now, the numbers would be lower. His current Gallup three-day moving average is 43 percent job approval.

"Currently a majority of States approval ratings below 50% point, although whether Obama is victorious partly will depend on who runs a major third candidate is his GOP challenger, and the degree to which the President supporters be vote on it," writes Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones.

His report also noted that President George W. Bush won re-election in 2004 with a 48 percent national approval rating.

In many States, battlefield Obama can take heart that even if he was less than 50% in the first half of 2011, he was not far from the mark. And in four States, where he asked less than 50% in the first half of 2010, this year he is at or above 50 percent: Maine (50 percent), Michigan (50 percent), Minnesota (52%) and Wisconsin (50 percent). Two considered swing States this, Michigan and Wisconsin. Obama will win expected to Maine and Minnesota, although the latter could swing Republican, if a North American wins the GOP nomination.

To win re-election, Obama must win not the battleground states, which he won in 2008. And this is good news for him, because he will not. His campaign has already abandoned reportedly all in Indiana, where Obama of the job approval is 42 percent.

The approval numbers work in other way explains range from tolerable the President pretty bad: Colorado (44 percent), Florida (47), Iowa (49), Nevada (44), New Hampshire (40), New Mexico (46), North Carolina (46), Ohio (45), Oregon (44), Pennsylvania (48) and Virginia (46).

Obama of the best State is Connecticut, with 60 percent. (District of Columbia, that no State, but which has three electoral votes, watches 83 percent.) His worst State is Idaho 27percent.

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Bad news for Obama in Gallup polls - even before shares fell - Christian Science Monitor